I’m embarrassed to admit that I went through a conspiracy theory phase as I transitioned from lower-brain to higher-brain thinking. For some reason, I struggled with the concept that our world is so complex that control by a small group of people conspiring to manipulate major catastrophes or whole industries is not very likely. Technology and greater transparency have made the concealment of facts and actions increasingly more complicated.
I began to develop my higher-brain thinking when we moved our hernia team from Missouri to Florida about 10 years ago. I had an “aha” moment while reading a fiction novel that described the unintended consequences of simplistic solutions attempting to address complex problems. However, it would be many years before I deeply understood the science of biological systems and further developed higher-brain thinking.
As I was trying to develop this higher-brain understanding of our complex world, I would often get caught up thinking about the multifaceted problems in health care and how our current understanding of science is lacking. I would get so preoccupied with this that I once ran out of gas on the highway, not because there were no gas stations available, but I just forgot to look at the gas gauge. I’ve also driven away from the gas station with the pump handle still in my gas tank—twice! My early higher-brain development was chaotic, but by about 2012, I was no longer acting like I had early-onset dementia—as some thought I might have had.
One of the reasons that conspiracy theories are attractive is that our lower brain craves certainty. We want to see patterns that explain cause-and-effect relationships, usually related to events that have resulted in harm. Conspiracy theories are especially attractive during times of uncertainty in our world (e.g., after 9/11 and during our current pandemic). Our competitive lower brain wants to blame something or someone that is causing the harm. When suffering occurs in our world, our lower brain is most comfortable with simple causation. In reality, there are usually many contributing factors that result in these tragic situations.
Another problem evaluating conspiracy theories is the fact that the information available is rarely conclusive. Sometimes there is a lack of transparency. Often, there is contradictory information due to the complexity of the problem. Unfortunately, there also may be misinformation, sometimes including intentional disinformation. Further, information is sometimes presented to defend or market a position or product related to the problem; there are certainly people and companies that try to profit from complex issues that may or may not improve the situation.
From the book “The Believing Brain,” the author, Michael Shermer, PhD, describes how a conspiracy theory is less likely to be true the more complex the event is and the more people who are required to be involved. The problem is when we only see the information that supports our belief in the conspiracy as valid, known as confirmation bias. And we desire to avoid the discomfort and fear of uncertainty.
In my case, I think it was the need for my brain to attempt to explain the patterns in the complex problems I was trying to understand and hoping to solve that led me to consider conspiracy theory thinking. Before I had adequately developed higher-brain thinking, my desire to see causation in inappropriate patterns and connections led my brain to consider the potential truth in health care–related conspiracy theories, as well as for 9/11, former President John F. Kennedy’s assassination and other questionable world events. Fortunately, my motivation wasn’t to blame and shame a person or group of people. It was to learn and try to figure out why our health care system was not sustainable and what we can potentially do about it. So, I never wrote letters or tried to recruit others to believe in these theories during that time. And although I did some research about several conspiracy theories, I was pretty sure that no world leaders—or any other people, for that matter—were shape-shifting reptilian humanoids.
Part of the reason for the prevalence of conspiracy theories and why so many people consider them to be truthful is the number of past conspiracies that actually happened, such as the U.S. government’s MK-Ultra program and the tobacco industry cover-up about the link between cigarettes and cancer, among others.
Another major problem that perpetuates conspiracy theories is the lack of transparency from organizations and the divisiveness between groups on either side. For example, there are many health care–related conspiracy theories, but one of the most prevalent is whether vaccines are harmful and/or cause autism. Although there is no proof that vaccines are related to autism, I’ve mentioned in a prior article [“Is There a Magic Bullet for COVID-19,” Sept. 2020, page 22] that any treatment could result in a benefit, be wasteful or contribute to unintended harm in different patient subpopulations. It’s no different for vaccines. Vaccines have been valuable for many diseases, completely eradicating smallpox, for example. But several vaccines are harmful and have been withdrawn from the market.
Vaccines are a complex preventive treatment for complex biologic diseases. Different vaccines will have different levels of effectiveness, variable outcomes and potential side effects in various subpopulations. For example, the flu vaccine is not entirely effective, and the effectiveness varies from season to season.
Lower-brain thinking leads some of us to believe in a vaccine conspiracy theory out of fear that pharmaceutical companies are not being transparent due to a sole focus on the profit motive. But some of us blame and shame these people who believe in vaccine conspiracy theories and try to convince them to get them or their children vaccinated. This doesn’t help and is lower-brain thinking and behavior. I’ve heard many well-intended physicians on national television, and even more on social media, say, “Vaccines are safe; they don’t cause harm.” But that isn’t wholly true. Since 1989, the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program has paid almost $4.5 billion to people injured after receiving a vaccination. This lower-brain thinking and behavior from both sides leads to divisiveness and doesn’t help address complex problems in our world.
Here’s how higher-brain thinking can help us deal with complex events and problems in our world that could lead to fear-induced conspiracy theories:
- Remember that we should not allow these types of beliefs to divide us. The majority of people on either side of a conspiracy theory belief are only trying their best to do the right thing for themselves and their families.
- Transparency is critical. Don’t put a public relations spin on the information. Give people the benefit of the doubt that they will appreciate honest, transparent information. Embrace the vulnerability of transparency and a higher-brain mindset of learning and improvement.
- Don’t judge people’s and organizations’ behavior or motives. Give people and organizations the benefit of the doubt that they are trying to do their best.
- Try not to worry about things you can’t control or something you can’t change. No matter who killed JFK, he’s still dead.
- Listen genuinely to others who disagree with you, as long as they’re willing to have a civil dialogue. If they aren’t, don’t engage in or escalate a conflict. Avoid the subject or end the relationship, if necessary.
- Realize that what divides us can destroy us at a societal, community and even at a personal level. But working together with different perspectives and talents to solve the complex problems in our world will unify us.
- Be humble and realize you might not be right.
- Recognize that most issues, like vaccinations, are not all good or all bad; they are complex issues. When two groups choose a side, right or wrong, both sides are wrong for any complex problem.
As I continued to deepen my personal growth and the development of my higher-brain thinking, the anxiety and focus on things I couldn’t control, or know for sure, seemed to melt away. I learned that our health care system has major structural flaws and that there are structural solutions. This knowledge helped me to become very motivated and hopeful. I now know that no one intends to have a health care system that is tragically harmful to many people through physical, financial and psychological harm. These are unintended consequences. The challenge in front of us is to resist the lower-brain impulse to blame people or organizations. Instead, we should all work together toward the transformation of a health care business model from one based on volume, revenue growth and competition to one that collaboratively learns how to measure and improve value for patients and the system as a whole.
The most important thing holding us back is our lower-brain thinking, and that is not a conspiracy theory.
Dr. Ramshaw is a general surgeon and data scientist in Knoxville, Tenn., and a managing partner at CQ Insights. He is an editorial advisory board member of General Surgery News. You can read more from him on his blog: www.bruceramshaw.com/ blog.
This article is from the February 2021 print issue.
Please log in to post a comment